The Hungarian elections of 12 April, which swept away Viktor Orban and his illiberal regime, coincided with critical developments in the Gulf as the region braced for yet another round of fighting between the US and Iran over their heads.
Still, the two mouthpieces of the region, Al Jazeera of Qatar and Al Arabiya of Saudi Arabia, reported objectively, if briefly, about the impending change of the guard in Hungary. The reporting focused on highlighting the end of 16 years of rule by PM Orban with mention of his vanquisher, PM-designate Peter Magyar. Not much in the way of analysis emerged from the reporting by the two most-viewed international Arab TV channels. Arab media writ large was even more tight-lipped, mostly regurgitating briefs from European and US news channels. Nothing indicated that the Middle East, and in its heart the Gulf, paid much heed to what Hungarians and Europe viewed as an epic event.
Still, with the passage of time, this might change.
It is quite true that the Middle East, and the Gulf in particular, had a bromance with the outgoing Hungarian PM. Orban ruled long enough to have met, and befriended many, if not all major statesmen in the wider region. Of particular significance was his uniquely close relationship with President Erdogan of Turkey. Orban not only adulated him but, to show his reverence, even attempted to rewrite Hungarian history, giving it a Turkic twist, a mythic link of common ancestry, in fact, scientific nonsense. Singularly in the EU, Orban sidelined all misgivings over what the EU frowned upon when it came to Ankara’s treatment of dissidents and handling of elections.
Such a conciliatory tone was well received in many ME capitals, where Orban’s strongman image and evolving crusade against globalism and liberal values were seen as a “return to sanity”. Much the same way President Trump and his MAGA movement viewed Orban, a crusader of identity politics. No wonder the Hungarian PM, who wanted to be everybody’s friend abroad except the Europeans critical of his autocratic verve, took great pains to court the wealthy Gulf partners. His tours in the region secured a dazzling array of agreements from energy to trade to tech and scientific cooperation. Some, however, particularly in real estate, raised many eyebrows in Hungary, for clearly favoring the type of political cronies who became the beneficiaries of most, if not all, of Orban’s economic dealings. Much as deals for energy security and trade were good news for Hungary, intent to diversify its energy resources, the opacity of many others left Hungarians wondering. Even more so as Orban’s favored oligarchs increasingly showed up in Gulf locations to secure their ill-gotten gains in real estate and bank accounts, sensing that the party for them at home is soon over.
Yet, Gulf capitals that staked their bets on Orban ought not to discard Hungary as a partner, even as his government is collapsing. A transparent, rules-based Hungarian economy aligned with EU norms might serve overseas partners much better than the unpredictability and free-for-all (cronies) that were the hallmark of the Hungarian economy under Orban.
What does the change in Budapest mean, politically, for the Middle East and, specifically, the Gulf?
Aligned with Brussels rather than endlessly disrupting EU decision-making and blocking common decisions, Budapest will foster a more coherent and powerful European position supporting the Middle East in these troubled times. It is useful for the Gulf to remember that adverse shifts in the nature of the Western alliance, as seen in the troubling disharmony between Washington and European capitals lately, only served the same powers intent on weakening Gulf cohesion. Hungary, a small European nation, proved to be a trendsetter in arresting the drive to undermine European unity under the guise of identity-based culture wars instigated by forces outside Europe. Since 12/4, even Euro-skeptic far-right parties of the continent have started to reconsider their stance vis-à-vis such outside disruptors.
The incoming government led by Peter Magyar will join European efforts to help contain the conflict currently besetting the Gulf, while standing up to any obstruction of free navigation and trade. Hungary, moreover, will shed all Orban-era ambiguities over interdicting Tehran possessing a nuclear program.
Another signal policy move from the incoming Government in Budapest is Hungary’s reversal of the decision by former PM Orban to quit the ICC. Staying within the International Criminal Court, Hungary is siding with the Court’s verdict that there should be no impunity for war crimes and crimes against humanity. This fact must not be lost on PM Netanyahu when he contemplates honoring his standing invitation to Budapest.
As Ukraine angles for a more high-profile partnership in the Gulf, placing its considerable talent in anti-drone warfare at the disposal of Gulf capitals, Kyiv is no longer beset by a hostile Hungary at its back, as during Orban’s tenure. Secure with his veto removed, the 90 billion Euro EU aid package will make all supporters of Ukraine let out a sigh of relief. Gulf nations should also see this as a gain for their own security.
Hungary has a wide network of Embassies covering the entire Gulf and most of the Middle East. These missions will now promote the European Union’s manifold support for the region as it navigates through fraught times. Hungary will remain an open and welcoming partner to Gulf/Middle Eastern nations and will offer them the confidence they deserve in politics and business. In Budapest, they will have a trusted friend. Time to learn his name, eponymous with “Al Majar.”
