May 14, 2025 will go down as a watershed date in modern Syrian history. Just six months after coming to power, the former Al Qaida operative Ahmed Al-Sharaa aka Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani, former inmate of Camp Bucca Prison in Iraq, met the most powerful man on Earth and the most powerful man in the Middle East. The three hit it off immediately. President Trump gave a succinct, but positive characterization of his new acquaintance calling him a tough and attractive guy. Host to the impromptu meeting – it was not on the record of the President’s Gulf tour – Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman seemed at ease with his Syrian guest whom he met for the second time.
The introductory meeting with the US President earned Al-Sharaa the immediate lifting of all US sanctions on Syria. How soon this will transpire, considering the complexity of the sanction architecture, is difficult to determine, as it requires Congressional approval. Still, it is a fresh start for Syria and a huge step in the direction of ridding the country of all, including EU, sanctions. An important milestone on the way to recovery and reconstruction of a country reduced to rubble in nearly a decade and a half of devastating war.
The image of the two presidents and their royal host chatting in Riyadh might have caused some discomfort to three people in front of their TV screens.
The first was PM Netanyahu. For all intents and purposes, the days of random bombings in Syria by Israel are over. You do not bomb someone the US president befriended. Neither someone hugged by the crown prince of the kingdom you need to befriend. Israel will have to chart a new strategy of coexistence with its northeastern neighbor. Perhaps easier than it seems at first sight, considering some common interests – keeping Iran away, and making sure some bad apples in Syria (there are still many) will not gang up against you with bad apples elsewhere.
The second was Ayatollah Khamenei. From a member of the Axis of Resistance, Syria has irreversibly become an Axis of Containment player with the aim of containing Iran. No more oxygen for the Islamic Republic in the country it wanted to turn into a colony. Rather, an irksome neighbor for Iraq, already carefully balancing, trying to escape the mortal hug of Tehran.
The third person who might have had justifiably mixed feelings watching the Riyadh spectacle was President Erdogan. It was his relentless effort to contain both Iran and Russia in Syria via the Astana process that kept the opposition, holed up in Idlib, not just alive but capable of gathering strength to liberate the country. His support for HTS was expected to be rewarded with what many anticipated would be an outsize influence in the new Syria. Having drawn the chestnuts from the fire, Ankara must now put up with what may be a benevolent Saudi tutelage over Syria. Reconstruction will be a Herculean task. Where else would the money come from? The Gulf was tense as it watched events in Syria unfold and feared a staunchly Muslim Brotherhood-oriented regime emerging in Damascus. After May 14, these fears may be somewhat alleviated. In the good books of President Trump, the Government in Damascus will be careful not to make a mistake. No jihadi extremism of the old school style to be allowed to disrupt the harmony. Neither any folly that could displease Riyadh or Abu Dhabi.
The task of clearing away the rubble and starting reconstruction in Syria – literally and figuratively – will be testing for the new Government. They will have to find a balance between centralizing and subsidiarity, very probably through granting broad administrative authority to the provincial level, most notably in provinces with significant ethnic minorities like the Kurds and the Druze. The safety of the Alawite community will be closely watched and very probably the ultimate litmus test of the sincerity of the Damascus Government when it comes to minorities. Nothing of this could have been underway without the sanctions, most notably Washington’s, paralyzing Syria, being lifted. The credit goes to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who cut the red tape of sanctions relief, otherwise hugely time-consuming, betting on “Trump transactionalism”.
Did the Riyadh meeting with President Trump grant the new Syrian president carte blanche? Hardly. Still, its significance cannot be contested. Syria is on the way to being rid of the debilitating sanctions that punished the Assad regime for its crimes. Its neighbors will have to come to terms with reality and shelve plans for influence peddling, instead, offering selfless help to the work lying ahead. Damascus, conversely, will have to build itself into a trustworthy partner for all, including Israel. Abraham Accords? Not so fast. It will take hard work to dispel the halo of mistrust still lingering above the new leaders, many, including the newly minted president, with bounties on their heads not so long ago. It is a bumpy road ahead, but May 14 was a fresh start and a ray of hope for the people of Syria, after decades of inordinate suffering.
Image Source: White House, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons
