The new Iraqi government, led by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Al-Zaidi, launched the “Dawn Crackdown” (Sawlat Al-Fajr) anti-corruption campaign on June 28, resulting in 47 arrests. The campaign might recover $7.6 billion in assets through the return of stolen funds and the confiscation of assets. Most of the arrests are based on testimonies of Adnan Al-Jumaili, a former undersecretary at the Oil Ministry, who was arrested in May.
“There are many captured corrupt politicians currently under investigation, and these investigations are expected to uncover additional evidence and related files. At the same time, many other cases are still under review to ensure that those responsible are held accountable,” Bakr al-Samarrai, special adviser to Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Falih al-Zaidi, said at an event on Iraq by Chatham House on July 21.
During the campaign, there was also much video footage published with Iraqi security forces digging up jars with money, and finding money hidden behind walls and confiscated gold.
The campaign seems also to be a message to Washington that Iraq is cleaning up. The campaign came just before the Iraqi PM al-Zaidi’s recent visit to Washington in July. Iraq also arrested Deputy Oil Minister Ali Maarij al-Bahadly on 29 June, a US-sanctioned official accused of using his post to help Iran-linked networks smuggle oil, while in May, Iraq still rejected U.S. allegations against al-Bahadly.
However, some Iraq experts say that the campaign is not serious. “So far it is only based upon the confessions of the ex-Deputy Oil Minister and has only really touched two political parties, one Sunni and ex-PM Sudani’s, neither of which are major players. If it moves beyond that, then it might be serious,” said Joel Wing, Iraq analyst and blogger for Musings on Iraq.
“The problem is arresting people does nothing to change the system, which is corrupt from top to bottom. Not only that, but the government has talked about amnestying people who have been arrested if they promise to return the money they stole. Oftentimes people turn in a bit of the money they promise, and then they leave Iraq.”
Omar Al-Nidawi, a nonresident senior fellow with the Iraq Initiative in the Atlantic Council’s Middle East programs, agrees. “I think that even if we see more arrests and some funds recovered, the campaign is unlikely to extend beyond politically vulnerable or expendable figures.”
“As I argue in my recent article for 1001 Iraqi Thoughts, a government that’s composed of political actors whose power and influence depend upon sustaining patronage faces inherent limitations in dismantling the very system that sustains it.”
This is not the first time that Iraq launched anti-corruption campaigns. Former Iraqi PM Mustafa Al-Kadhimi in 2020 established Committee 29 to tackle corruption. But his actions faced criticism after Washington Post reporting showed the Iraqi government used incommunicado detention, torture, and sexual violence to extract confessions from senior Iraqi officials and businessmen. Furthermore, the previous Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia` al-Sudani, who became prime minister of Iraq in October 2022, re-established the Supreme Anti-Corruption Authority and then went after key cabinet members and staff close to former Prime Minister Kadhimi, accusing them of corruption. The current anti-corruption campaign by Iraqi PM Al-Zaidi also targets former cabinet members and staff of the previous Sudani administration.
According to Kirk H. Sowell, a political risk analyst and the publisher of the biweekly newsletter Inside Iraqi Politics, the most interesting actions have been against former Minister Ahmad al-Asadi and Shibl al-Zaidi. “It is important to note that Asadi split with Sudani’s bloc over the Zaidi govt and that Khidmat (Shibl Z’s bloc) didn’t support the government. It should raise suspicions when the targets of the campaign are all out of the existing circle of power – assuming that is true.”
However, Ali Almikdam, a Baghdad-based researcher specializing in Iraqi political conflicts and regional influences, said that “corruption in Iraq is a deeply entrenched and highly interconnected system that has evolved over many years. Expecting it to be dismantled overnight, as many demand, is simply unrealistic.”
“What the PM Al-Zaidi is pursuing is not a symbolic public relations campaign, but a strategic effort aimed at dismantling the most influential nodes within Iraq’s corruption networks.”
“The seriousness of the campaign is further demonstrated by its continuity and expanding scope. It has not been confined to figures from the Shiite political camp but has also targeted Sunni figures and others, suggesting that investigations are being driven by corruption cases rather than sectarian or political affiliation,” he added. “For that reason, portraying these measures as lacking genuine commitment to combating corruption overlooks both the scale of the campaign and the high-profile figures it has targeted.”
However, Dr Renad Mansour, Deputy Director for the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House during the Chatham House event on Iraq that the confiscated money and gold will only be a drop in a big basket for what Iraq really needs, especially after the closure of the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran-US war, which might lead Iraq to have difficulties in paying government salaries in the future.
As a result of the war, Iraq’s monthly oil revenue has fallen to about $1.5 billion from between $7 billion and $8 billion, due to the fact that Iraq was not able to export most of its oil.
