Part 2 of our series, Iran’s Look East Policy, and China’s March West Policy, further examines the relations between Iran and China. What opportunities do the Western sanctions on Iran mean for China in terms of defense trade and collaboration?
Sanctions have become a recurring feature for Iran, persisting throughout its recent past and present, with indications of their continued imposition in the foreseeable future. Plausibly, they may also have been a significant contributing factor to President Raisi’s passing: Iran’s Civil and Military Aviation sectors, already characterized by antiquity, face exacerbated challenges in light of the expanding scope of sanctions. This situation portends potentially dire consequences for the Iranian Air fleet, which has already experienced approximately 1,800 accidents since the revolution until 2022, posing substantial risks to passenger safety. Amidst the global pandemic, China strategically deployed soft power strategies toward Iran in response to the perceived inadequacy of U.S. sanctions in facilitating access to essential medical commodities. Seizing upon this opportunity, China provided considerable aid to Iranians, including over 400,000 masks, a waste disposal facility, and 500 prefabricated rooms equipped with seating, mattresses, and desks. These gestures, alongside subsequent aid provisions, underscored China’s positioning as a viable and dependable alternative partner for Iran vis-à-vis Western countries. However, the potential consequences of Iran’s increasing reliance on China should not be overlooked.
Iran and China perceive each other as strategic partners endeavoring to navigate away from the prevailing Western-dominated international order. Acknowledging their superior capabilities compared to most other states within their respective regions, they have cultivated a mutual understanding of their shared objectives. While China has officially maintained a stance of lacking core strategic interests in the Middle East, emphasizing economic and commercial ties, its relationship with Iran has been substantially influenced by broader strategic considerations. The Chinese have adeptly utilized their connections with Iran as a means of exerting leverage, imposing punitive measures, or counterbalancing their engagements in other strategic arenas. Iran’s geostrategic significance, manifested in its pivotal location flanked by the Strait of Hormuz and the Caspian Sea, as well as its strategic corridors (North-South, East-West), underscores its relevance to China’s broader regional aspirations. Consequently, cooperation with Iran is deemed essential for realizing China’s strategic objectives in the Middle East, prompting substantial investments in economic development and military modernization. Furthermore, Iran may leverage its strategic ties with China as a bargaining chip in negotiations with select Western and Eastern nations concerning sanctions and the burgeoning role of China in the Middle East.
China has consistently maintained that its provision of weaponry to Iran serves purely commercial purposes, although its desire to curtail US influence has undeniably influenced its actions. According to publicly available records, China supplied Iran with an estimated USD$3.8 billion worth of conventional weaponry between 1982 and 2004. Moreover, Iran has a historical precedent of procuring missiles from China. China has also played a pivotal role in the development of Iran’s indigenous military-industrial sector. Despite being subject to a trade ban, China remains the primary supplier of armaments to Iran. The heightened tensions and military displays in the region may potentially result in increased Chinese arms sales. The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute reports that Iran was the second-largest recipient of Chinese munitions between 2005 and 2009, trailing only Pakistan. The China-mediated agreement between Riyadh and Tehran signifies the efficacy and assertiveness of China’s regional policy. China is increasingly emerging as a prominent power broker in the Middle East, a region fraught with crises and conflicts. Following its successful mediation in the reestablishment of diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Beijing may shift its focus towards addressing other contentious issues, such as the enduring Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
According to Edmund Ghareeb, Executive Director of the Center for Strategic and Diplomatic Studies at the University of South Florida, the $400 billion agreement between Iran and China presents a marked departure from investments made by Iran’s regional counterparts, namely Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. This investment is construed as strategic in nature, encompassing not only infrastructural projects in the oil and gas sector but also investments in military armaments. China has recognized the necessity for prudent management of its ties with Iran vis-à-vis its relations with the United States. It is imperative to note, however, that this cautious approach does not preclude the possibility of China leveraging Iran’s strategic capabilities, including military armaments, against the United States in the Indo-Pacific region or in addressing the Taiwan issue. Despite China’s aversion to overt military entanglements with Iran, its extensive provision of arms supplies, pivotal contributions to Iran’s nuclear endeavors, and collaborative ventures in military technologies over the past three decades underscore a strategic dimension to its engagements with Iran. In light of these considerations, it is equally crucial to examine Iran’s engagement with China in terms of commercial activities and connectivity projects in the subsequent part.
(To be continued in Part 3)
