China and the UAE follow a path that serves their interests and bolsters their international standing. A future based on economic cooperation and security, which seems to be entering a new phase, presents promising prospects for both nations, as well as the Middle East, which still lacks a coherent vision for peace.
Introduction
The Gulf states carry on with their expansion of ties worldwide. Forging new alliances and partnerships with the Eastern powers is perhaps one of the most prominent examples of how their foreign strategies are being shifted. The wind of change within the international system has also affected regional order, impacting the decision-making processes of the Arab states and reshuffling interstate relations along with their approach toward contemporary challenges and opportunities.
The United Arab Emirates, the rising power of the Middle East, is expanding its influence beyond the region and strengthening ties with global powers, too. The Sino-Emirati relationship is thriving despite the core alliance with the United States. The year 2024 has been a remarkable one for China and the UAE since the states celebrate the 40thanniversary of establishing bilateral ties. Accordingly, the President of the UAE, Sheikh Mohammad bin Zayed al-Nahyan paid an official visit to China, marking the developing strategic partnership between the states.
After the official visit to Beijing, the joint air force military training took place in Xinjiang, a northwestern province of China. It is the second time when such an activity has been held by the states. Security and defense cooperation appears to be moving into a new phase; however, one should remember that the relationship between the UAE and China is driven mainly by economic interests. Therefore, it is crucial to picture the current state of relations between Abu Dhabi and Beijing in light of their thriving multidimensional relationship.
Historical Background
Since establishing ties on 1 November 1984, Sino-UAE relations have flourished. Mohammad Bin Huwaidin describes the topic well in his book China’s Relations with Arabia and the Gulf 1949-1999 (2002). Both countries pursued foreign policies based on the principles of non-interference or respect for the sovereignty of all states, which are at the core of the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence. In the 80s and 90s, the number of high-level visits increased, cementing their relationship by signing a few agreements on economic and trade cooperation. The UAE was among the states with whom China saw an opportunity to diversify its oil and gas imports, eventually becoming one of the largest importers of hydrocarbons originating from the Middle East. The energy sector was the pillar of the Sino-Emirati relationship, laying the foundations for enhanced development, such as trade and investments.
China and the Gulf states’ contemporary relations are further explored in other books and articles. For instance, Jonathan Fulton explores the Sino-UAE ties in his publication China’s Relations with the Gulf Monarchies (2019). The number of signed agreements expanded, encompassing not only trade but also infrastructure construction, security, tourism, culture, and people-to-people ties. In 2012, the Chinese officials paid an official visit to the UAE which opened another chapter in their history. Their respective representatives signed a strategic partnership, paving the path toward a deepened relationship and bolstering multifaceted fields of cooperation. Six years later, they upgraded their status to a comprehensive strategic partnership, positioning themselves at the forefront of China’s hierarchy of alliances.
Economic and Military Cooperation
China’s Belt and Road Initiative, a landmark project introduced by President Xi Jinping in 2013, marked a decisive moment for bilateral relations and the region as a whole. In the eyes of China, the Gulf, and the UAE specifically, is a perfect fit for Beijing’s vision to expand its trade routes worldwide within the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) framework. A competitive business environment and strategic location, along with highly-developed transport infrastructure, turned the state into a crucial logistical hub in the region. China’s Arab Policy Paper (2016) envisioned a broad strategy under which the Gulf states were to cooperate and enhance ties with their counterpart. The so-called “1+2+3” framework, initially presented in 2014, is based on three pillars: “energy, infrastructure construction, trade, investment facilitation and high and new tech fields of nuclear energy, space satellite, and new energy as the three breakthroughs.”
China perceives the UAE as a crucial trade partner in the Middle East. There has been a constant surge in non-oil trade value, accounting for nearly AED 284 billion in 2022. Regarding oil exports, the UAE is among the top suppliers of hydrocarbons from the Middle East, following Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Oman, and, to some extent, Iran. Similarly, China remains one of the most prominent foreign investors in the UAE in sectors such as real estate, finance, energy (i.e., Mohamed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park) or manufacturing. According to The National, the UAE, along with Saudi Arabia, are “gateways for Chinese companies to go overseas”. Abu Dhabi and Riyadh received $33,53 billion and $38,64 billion from China (2005-2020), respectively, becoming the top recipients of foreign investments in the Gulf. Most Chinese companies operate within the Jebel Ali Free Trade Zone (JAFZA), the largest free trade zone in the world.
Security and, specifically, military cooperation were also included, indicating a broad scope of priorities to provide peace and stability. Despite the U.S. dominance in arms sales, China has increased its share in drones (UAVs – Wing Loong II)and weapons exports to the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The Emirati Edge conglomerate and Chinese Norinco are reportedly planning to enhance their cooperation in the defense and military sectors. Another noticeable fact is that the military sphere is likely to become a priority in the near future: “We will strengthen the exchange of visits of military officials, expand military personnel exchange, deepen cooperation on weapons, equipment and various specialized technologies, and carry out joint military exercises. We will continue to support the development of national defense and military forces of Arab States to maintain peace and security of the region”.
However, in reality, it is uncertain how this cooperation would work given that China’s military presence in the Gulf remains limited, being under strict U.S. control and without any further consent for its expansion. In 2021, U.S. officials immediately reacted to the reported military facility in Abu Dhabi that was being developed by China, ordering Abu Dhabi to halt such activity. As it turns out, the work on a suspected military base resumed at the end of 2022, showing that the UAE’s policy embarked on a new path that was contradictory to U.S. policy.
40th Anniversary of UAE-China Relations – Many More Years to Come
The current year marks the 40th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the UAE. On May 30, President Mohammad bin Zayed al-Nahyan paid a state visit to China to discuss the current state of relations under the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership agreement upgraded in 2018. During the official talks with Xi Jinping, both leaders emphasized the flourishing relationship and expressed an interest in enhancing bilateral initiatives, specifically in trade, energy, infrastructure, artificial intelligence, digital economy, security, or other joint efforts under the BRI. The special importance of Sino-Emirati ties is evidenced by the President of the UAE, stressing that China is a “long-term and reliable strategic partner”. Mohammad bin Zayed also pointed out that China is his second home, indicating that Sino-Emirati ties are a priority. During the visit, the leaders discussed other significant topics, such as the war in Gaza and calls for a ceasefire.
It is worth mentioning that shortly after the official visit, joint military air force drills were held in Xinjiang. China and the UAE expressed interest in deepening their defense and security cooperation by exchanging experiences in the field. It is not the first time China and the UAE have worked together; they previously carried out similar exercises in August 2023 under the name “China-UAE Falcon Shield 2023.” Saudi Arabia, another crucial Middle Eastern partner of China, was also engaged in separate joint military drills.
China’s strategy is not only part of bilateral agreements but is also in line with its Global Security Initiative (2023), which is also supported by the UAE. As stated in a paper, China would “[…] jointly foster collective security, and accelerate development cooperation, to jointly establish a new security framework in the Middle East”. Beijing’s policy towards the region implies a collective approach, which aims to enhance security and eventually create better conditions for doing business. This, in turn, points to a long-term strategy in which relations with the Gulf states are being strengthened.
Conclusion
China and the UAE have proven that they can manage their relationship effectively despite obstacles and challenges occurring in the region and beyond. Although the United States is in control over the security of the region and remains the leading supplier of arms, the Gulf states turn to China to seek alternative ways of diversifying their economies and military cooperation.
Trade, energy, and investments will certainly be a priority for both parties. The economy is the central focus of interest as it enhances Abu Dhabi’s and Beijing’s regional and international standing. The recent visit of the UAE’s leader to China presents an opportunity to develop ties further and enhance strategic fields of common interest. Pursuing a long-term vision with a view to achieving ambitious goals not only requires a solid foundation and trust but also a stable environment. Unlike the U.S., China does not have leverage in terms of ensuring security in the Middle East; however, it offers alternative solutions that other states, including the UAE, find acceptable and feasible, e.g., mediation efforts.
Indeed, the growing defense and military ties between the UAE and China require more attention. For now, the UAE–U.S. security partnership is irreplaceable, but the diminishing role of the latter in the region slowly pushes the Gulf states toward the East. As the systemic factors are strongly affecting the regional order and foreign policies of the Gulf states, the increased presence of China in the Middle East, particularly in the field of security, would be an additional incentive to ignite the global rivalry between China and the U.S. The post-war reality is still uncertain. However, keeping the balance between the West and the East is by far the best scenario for the Gulf states to maintain relative stability. The UAE, together with China and perhaps with other monarchies following the new path, can open a new chapter in the history of the Middle Eastern order.
