In recent years, the Gulf Arab states have become more self-reliant and assertive in pursuing their national interests. Their approaches are unlikely to change, even with the return of President Donald Trump. The influence of other global players like China makes it more challenging to persuade the Arab countries to abandon their diversification efforts, as they have already cemented their presence in Asia and beyond.
Donald Trump’s return to the American political scene as a head of state presents a significant challenge for many. Trump will have to deal with myriad challenges and problems that have not been resolved yet. As the prime actor in international relations, the US is the country with the greatest influence on global affairs so far. Having a say in ongoing disputes and conflicts can be used in a number of ways to find the best solutions and bring matters to an end. In his speeches during the second inauguration and the World Economic Forum, little has been said about the vision for the Middle East or prospects for Sino-American relations. With the prevalence of inward-focused policy that was exemplified, the President envisaged Saudi investments in the US, amounting to $1 trillion, and mentioned the return of Israel’s hostages home. However, despite the uncertainty prevalent during his first term in office, it is still possible to signal how Arab states fit into their policies and what strategy can be implemented.
Given that the world is different today than it was a few years ago, the US must find a proper way to end conflicts that inflict other disputes and cause further escalation. The peace processes in the Middle East have reshaped the regional order and pictured contemporary positions of China and the US in it. What is also essential is the responsible management of relations with its allies and the strategic rivalry with China. The Arab Gulf states, on their part, depend on the security guarantees provided by the US, but this does not hold them back from engaging deeper with China. Beijing is also present in the game, strengthening bilateral ties with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Qatar, and Iran by investing in strategic domains and even attempting to cooperate in the security field, yet not crossing the red line. From China’s perspective, although each relationship differs in certain aspects, it nevertheless raises concerns for their strategic partner, the US. It also increases the stakes of the Sino-American global rivalry. The escalation of conflicts has temporarily turned the attention away from the US and China’s competition, but the current presidency might bring many surprises and turning points not only in relations with Beijing but also in interactions with the Arab Gulf states and Iran.
US-China Relations During Trump’s First Term in Office (2017-2021)
With Trump’s expanding “America First” policy, all eyes were on the rising competition with China, and the policies focused on limiting China’s growing economic influence. In a document issued in 2020 by the Trump administration entitled, United States Strategic Approach to the People’s Republic of China, it is outlined that “even if we compete with the PCR [People’s Republic of China], we welcome cooperation where our interests align”, therefore indicating that despite the intense competition, cooperation is still feasible. Nevertheless, given the fact that China’s leverage in economic or technology domains was by any means accepted, the US prompted its policy towards safeguarding national interests. The trade war, under which the US imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, illustrates the situation well. Apart from that, the developing military sector by Beijing was listed as a threat to the US international standing, which explains, from the American perspective, why this issue posed a challenge for Trump’s first administration.
The Gulf between China and the US
One should not forget the events in the 2017-2021 period that had a major impact on the region and the subsequent events. President Trump viewed the Gulf states as crucial partners in coordinating joint actions on regional matters, particularly within the framework of the Gulf Cooperation Council. The unilateral withdrawal of the US from the Iranian nuclear deal (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action) in 2018 was welcomed by the Gulf leaders, notably by the UAE and Bahrain, which previously induced the feeling of threat of the developing Iranian nuclear capabilities.
The Abraham Accords concluded in September 2020 was a factor that opened a new chapter in intra-Middle Eastern relations with a view to paving the way for new Israeli-Arab agreements. However, Trump’s inconsistent response to the missile attacks that struck Saudi Arabia in 2019, prior to the peace agreements, created concerns among the allies. In consequence, during this time, uncertainty within the Gulf states arose to the level that they increased autonomy in decision-making, expanding their presence in Asia, with a particular emphasis on China. Beijing, on its part, expressed similar intentions, raising the level of cooperation to the comprehensive strategic partnership with the UAE in 2018 (a corresponding agreement with Saudi Arabia was signed in 2016). The vision of a more stable relationship with China, the leading economic partner, appeared to be an optimal choice for the Arab Gulf states within their developing diversification strategies. On the contrary, the military domain remains at the center of the US-Gulf attention, and the US is not willing to replace the alliance with any other state, at least for now.
What Can We Anticipate Next?
It is important to note that today, we are facing threats and challenges that take place in different circumstances, also including the reshaping of the international world order. There are unresolved conflicts, i.e., between Ukraine and Russia, Sudan, or the uncertainty related to the endurance of the ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas, negotiated by the US, Qatar, and Egypt. The Middle Eastern states also vie for a leading position, aspiring to become decisive actors on the international stage. Qatar, one of the members of the Gulf Cooperation Countries, has emerged as a prominent state, playing the role of mediator again. It is clear that, depending on the situation, each country adopts different measures aligned with their strategic interests, with security being a top priority. Over the course of recent years, the Arab Gulf states have increased their assertiveness and embarked on a more autonomous path, not being excessively dependent on the US. One should remember that the Iranian nuclear deal negotiations also remain stalled. In the absence of progress, a new or upgraded plan should be developed that would take into account the interests of the countries in the region in the context of developing nuclear programs exclusively for peaceful purposes. These factors, however, point to an endless cycle of rivalry and prolonged conflicts which, if not managed rationally, will not contribute to providing stability at either the regional or international level.
The Arab Gulf leaders are in a position to continue their diversification efforts, choosing to enhance their ties with the US and China. Security remains the top priority, albeit economic cooperation, notably the increased share of Arab and Chinese investments, plays a pivotal role in Sino-Arab relations. The anticipated Saudi-US security agreement remains on the table, and it is a matter of time before the final decision is made. Donald Trump has recently stated that the neighboring states [Jordan, Egypt, and other Arab states] should accept Palestinian refugees and allow them to stay on their territory to “just clean out” the Gaza Strip. Such appalling expressions do not by any means contribute to Middle Eastern stability but have the opposite effect instead. Reducing animosities and fostering united efforts at the regional level could serve as an example of peace-building actions.
For the Middle East, particularly for the Arab Gulf states, the global rivalry between China and the US has a major impact on their foreign policies and ties with great powers. Whether these relations take the form of rivalry, in a smaller or larger sense, or tilt toward cooperation, Arab countries will carefully balance the players with the view of achieving mutual benefits following their national visions. In September 2024, China’s Premier Li Qiang visited the UAE and Saudi Arabia with the prospect of enhancing bilateral ties in several fields. As stated in the tweet by His Highness Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, enhancing the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between China and the UAE is of utmost importance. This example confirms the assumption that China has already established a firm position in the Middle East and has no intention to withdraw. Simultaneously, the Arab Gulf states cemented their standings in Asia and beyond, signaling that their strategies have evolved. Therefore, the United States’s foreign policy toward the region should be more prudent and predictable in its actions to sustain its key role in managing disputes and conflicts.
