…Iran can do two things, broadly speaking.
One, to continue as before, vomiting fire and brimstone over America and the Zionists, and attempt retribution for face-saving. It may continue pummeling Israel in its tit for tat war, opening the door to further Israeli carnage but causing the Jewish state pretty little real harm, rather, stoking sympathy for it that Gaza has precipitously undermined, the world over. It may declare war on America and attack US bases in the region directly or via proxies in Iraq and Yemen, risking a backlash even more painful than the one nixing the nuclear sites. It may attempt to obstruct shipping in the Gulf or, in a last-case scenario, close the Strait of Hormuz. All this would do nothing to improve its standing. Escalation would only extend its agony and delay the inevitable return to the negotiating table.
Two, it could stop and consider adopting a wholly different approach. First, by desisting from formally going to war with the US and declaring a unilateral ceasefire in its war with Israel. No easy task for a country, in terms of international law, the victim of aggression. Israel has by now knocked out pretty much everything it wanted, so as a gesture of goodwill to the US and the Gulf, it could accept reciprocating. More so, as the damage inflicted upon the Jewish state is also hefty. Then Tehran could head back to the negotiating table. A US satisfied over the successful raid may show a level of magnanimity not typical in the troubled relationship. The usual pattern of paroxysm to paroxysm, followed by crisis resolution, so typical in the Middle East, opens up good horizons for discussion now.
It remains to be seen which venue the Islamic Republic will choose. Revisiting the example of Egypt after the 1967 war – the closest analogy that comes to mind –, accepting the bitter reality and opting for a peaceful exit instead of straining itself for no use, seems by far the better solution. Egypt, with Soviet help, accumulated strength to reclaim Sinai in 1973 – eventually through diplomacy, after being beaten for a second time. Then it became friends with the US … and partner, if not friend, to Israel. What followed was not a bed of roses, but Egypt waded out of Nasserism, a perfect dead end, to reconnect with the world. A lesson Tehran might contemplate.
For Tehran, losing the nuclear program may be a blessing in disguise. A convenient tool for blackmail for decades, it has gradually become a major liability as Trump sank the JCPOA, deemed imperfect, and applied maximum pressure. The benefits for Iran were scant, if any. The notion of greatness it sought from the program hardly compensated for the harm visited on its failing economy. Iran lost the posture it had adopted in its quest for regional grandeur, which the nuclear program was the cornerstone of. Its proxies were picked off by Israel in the post 7/10, and Syria lost; Tehran’s bargaining chips have diminished. Now that the most important goal is gone, it can afford to change course.
But will it? For Tehran, the overarching consideration is saving the regime. Washington has no regime change agenda. Israel does, but that is not the issue. The decision lies with the people of Iran. How they will react after the carnage visited upon their country, remains to be seen. Sooner rather than later, there will be questions asked. The regime fares better if it flees ahead and tries to salvage the situation through diplomacy before it is too late.
The Islamic Republic has a unique ability to shoot itself in the foot – but likewise, to snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Now they can choose. After the resounding debacles of the last few months, now, repeating the rebound after the Iraq–Iran war, it may attempt to seek a new direction now that the issue at the root of its troubles with the world is no longer present.
The luck of the Ayatollahs – as pointed out by Vali Nasr – is the Iranian people’s fear of the unknown, most pronouncedly their fear of the possible disintegration of Iran, to fall apart into its constituent parts. A multi-ethnic state with many ethnic resentments brewing, that scenario is not to be discounted. It would be a Pyrrhic victory for the detractors of Iran, as an Iran-sized black hole in the Middle East would be a nightmare and a major destabilizer.
No amount of conjecture can presage what will happen now in and around Iran. One thing is for sure: everyone, Iran, Israel, and all in the area, should revert to the commodity in greatest demand in the region – common sense. Anything else would be a lose–lose scenario.
