Although the United States plays a decisive role in determining the course of events in the region, the Gulf states are well-positioned to contribute to maintaining a balance in a disrupted regional order. With their assertiveness, regional power status, and influence, they can act in unison to prevent the region from plunging into further instability.
The situation in the Middle East has already demonstrated the fragility of peace in the region. Predicting the course of events is always challenging due to the rapid actions taken by the parties involved in the regional conflicts, particularly the recent one between Israel, Iran, and the United States. Given the high level of tension in the region, these developments have caused concern and jeopardized stability. After a few days of exchange of fire, the US, siding with Israel, joined the game by bombing Iranian nuclear facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. On June 23, the Al-Udeid US military airbase near Doha was struck by the retaliatory attacks from Iran. At the time of the event, it was unclear whether this indicated a warning sign or a prelude to full-scale war.
While the shaky ceasefire, which officially started on June 24, seems to be holding place, it is way too early to claim peace in the region. With the airspaces in the region gradually reopening, the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council expressed solidarity with Qatar and stressed the role of dialogue as the only means to safeguard stability and security in the region. In a similar manner, the United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman held separate phone conversations with the Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, during which they welcomed the ceasefire agreement and underscored the need to enhance peace in the Middle East. As Al Jazeera reports, the Iranian President also discussed the recent attack with Emir of Qatar Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani and conveyed his feelings of “regret”; however, the Prime Minister of Qatar, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, later commented on the enduring impact of the attack (so-called “scar”) and highlighted “the time required to heal”.
The Arab Gulf states, which have been exposed to the threat, are capable of contributing to Middle Eastern stability with their power, a foreign policy aimed at fostering positive bilateral relations within and outside the region, and assertiveness developed over the years. Given the significant roles of the Gulf states in the region, particularly their efforts in the diplomatic sphere, it is worthwhile to discuss their role in the conflict and their contributions to peace.
The US’s Attack on Iran’s Capabilities and Its Consequences
President Donald Trump, in his speech on US attacks on Iran carried out on June 22, said, “There will be either peace, or there will be tragedy for Iran, far greater than we have witnessed over the last eight days”. He also warned that more targets remain. However, the decision came much earlier than expected. The President, prior to the strike, had postponed the decision to initiate further actions against Iran for the next two weeks. Tehran, caught off guard, said in response that its country has a right to “a legitimate response in self-defense”. The US’s actions contradict what was emphasized during President Trump’s inaugural address in January 2025, in which he pledged to end all conflicts and even stressed that he would not engage in other wars. The US, pursuing a hawkish policy, exerted pressure on Iranian officials to negotiate the nuclear program, but the strategy could still bring about opposite outcomes. This situation once again highlighted the unpredictability of the current US policy. Moreover, these “tit-for-tat” strikes do not herald anything positive for the region; instead, they cause more disruption and increased tension among the states.
The Stance of Gulf Arab States on the Conflict
The Arab Gulf states, just as the other countries in the Middle East, faced the consequences of the conflict between Iran and Israel. The airspace in the region was significantly impacted by drones and ballistic missiles, disrupting stability and security. Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed al-Nahyan, the United Arab Emirates’s top diplomat, warned of “uncalculated and reckless steps” that could have affected the entire region. Additionally, Anwar Gargash, senior diplomatic advisor to the UAE President, stated that “the longer a war takes, the more dangerous it becomes”, emphasizing that it would bring a “very difficult aftermath”.
Just before the retaliatory attack from Iran, Qatar, on its part, referred to a “flagrant violation of Iran’s sovereignty”, while Saudi Arabia, as well as the officials in Doha, pointed out the violation of international law. On June 16, the Arab and Islamic states issued an additional statement condemning Israel’s airstrikes on Iran and highlighting the role of “negotiations as the only viable means to reach a sustainable agreement” in the context of the Iranian nuclear program, as well as the need to safeguard “the freedom of navigation in international waterways”. Bahrain and Kuwait, concerned about future scenarios, imposed additional domestic safety regulations in preparation for the potential escalation of attacks in the region.
Destabilization at Its Peak?
The recent situation has demonstrated that Gulf countries are susceptible to attacks, even if they are not directly involved in the conflict. The Iranian authorities stressed that the missile strike was directed at the US and its involvement in the Israeli war, though the consequences were borne by third parties. Targeting the monarchies, especially those that host other American military bases, such as Qatar, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, and Iraq, can adversely affect their ties and potentially lead to a return to the strained relations of the previous decade. Moreover, it also represents a challenging scenario with harsh implications for the regional balance of power. The Houthi rebels, who are close allies of Iran, pose an additional threat to the region, which in consequence increases the level of uncertainty. Therefore, the Gulf countries have been placed on high alert, which has affected both their security and economies.
The conflict also took a toll on the aviation industry. Air carriers such as Singapore Airlines, American Airlines, and British Airways suspended some of their flights to the UAE and Qatar. The national airlines of the Gulf states, such as Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways, have temporarily suspended or rerouted their flights, too. By and large, the closure of airspace and regional tensions are generating losses in the aviation sector of these countries. This, in turn, also affects tourism, which is a major contributor to the Gulf’s economy.
Gulf States as Potential Peacemakers?
Following the recent events, the fragility of the Middle Eastern stability raises additional concerns about whether the ceasefire would remain in force. The Middle East is undoubtedly experiencing a shift in its regional order. Although the recent attack on Qatar did not cause any harm, it contributes to further instability and leads to the erosion of trust that has been developed over the years in their relations with Iran. The Gulf leaders, during their talks on the Iran-Israel conflict, “prioritize dialogue and seek peaceful solutions to the conflict,” demonstrating their aspirations towards achieving peace in the Middle East.
Certainly, for the Gulf, ensuring security is of the utmost importance, as indicated by official statements. The United States remains the main ally of the Gulf states; however, trust towards Washington may wane, particularly if the ceasefire is breached. Another attack on any Arab state will not be tolerated, as it violates the pillars of the security system. The solidarity which was expressed by the Gulf Arab states towards Qatar shows that in a situation of conflict, the states stand on the same side. Moreover, talks between the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Iran demonstrate that dialogue remains a fundamental tool in easing tensions and maintaining stability. It must be highlighted that none of the Gulf states is interested in a full-scale war.
The Gulf countries are determined to have a share in controlling security in the region, and their assertiveness, power, and influence, built over the years, can play a significant role in the current situation. With the Arab Gulf states and their important diplomatic roles in regional conflicts, their collective efforts in a form of dialogue with antagonized parties could serve as a diplomatic tool used in de-escalating tensions and even bringing conflicted parties to the table for talks. While the US remains the primary decision-maker in the conflict, the Gulf monarchies can work together to prevent further instability in the region.
