As North Africa slips into oblivion relative to the core Middle East, now synonymous with the Gulf and the Mashreq – add Egypt if you like – Europe is left alone dealing with the fallout from the region’s crises.
Each of them jolts the EU into short-term frenzied action but with little or no impact on the course of events. This is amply illustrated by the current tensions in Tunisia, mired in a deepening political imbroglio as the latest mass trial against the opposition initiated by strongman leader Kais Saied, the umpteenth in a row, vividly shows. The sentencing of opposition Ennahda leader Rached Ghannouchi – already serving a lengthy prison term – and several followers, some detained and some fled abroad, is decried by critics as a sham trial. All this, apparently, fits into the broader plan of (further) strengthening the one-man rule of the current leader. By all tokens, a superfluous reaction to a perceived threat from a weakened opposition in a political environment marred by democratic backslide. Tunisia, once hailed as a model of democratic change in the Arab world following its trailblazing 2011 revolution, has become yet another example of dashed hopes and a reversal to strongman rule.
At any other time, the latest trial and the wholesale return of authoritarian rule, as highlighted by the end of parliament and rule by decree, would have elicited loud shouts of protest from the Northern Shore. Not this time. In fact, Tunis hosted a high-level EU delegation in 2023, headed by Ursula von der Leyen, with Prime Ministers Meloni and Rutte in tow, in a bid to patch up differences and return to a modicum of cooperation based on the aforementioned agreement. Center stage is Europe’s escalating migrant crisis, the nightmare of the continent’s sitting presidents and prime ministers. Under strong domestic pressure to stem the tide, and goaded by the powerful anti-immigration rhetoric of Trump 2.0, Europe’s leaders would now do whatever it takes to put an end to the migratory flow or at least reduce the pressure. Sideline attempts like the UK’s to repatriate illegal migrants to Rwanda or the latest internal pacts about rechanneling illegal migrants into the countries of first entry are fast proving to be moot. What remains is to stop them in their tracks before they are being herded into hardly seaworthy rustbuckets by the human smugglers on the Southern Shore, to swim or sink.
Why should the Europeans be concerned about democratic backsliding in North Africa if they risk democratic backsliding at home, courtesy of the far-right illiberal parties that make migration their stalking horse in coming elections? Help yourself before helping others, goes the oxygen mask rule in air travel. Europe needs the cooperation of the North African authorities to cope with a crisis that is staunchly refusing to go away, as a combination of war, instability, economic meltdown, and climate catastrophe pushes millions towards the north from the Sahel and Sub-Saharan Africa. This year promises an unprecedented rise in numbers.
Not that Tunisia’s show trial is a case of a battle between good and evil. The reigning government is touting secular credentials while its major detractor, Ennahda, is a Muslim fundamentalist party sugar-coated by some allusions of tolerance by its leaders, hardly shared by grassroots supporters. Ennahda was the people’s choice after the fall of the dictatorship, but proved to be a disappointment in power, with the same program as its sister party, the Muslim Brotherhood of Egypt, which it tried and failed to implement. Europe sheds no tears over Ennahda. Still, the EU walks a fine line when it seeks a middle ground between appeasement and standing up for its values. For now, appeasement wins.
In addition to Tunisia, chaos and lawlessness in Libya pose a further significant challenge for the EU in North Africa, with human smuggling becoming nearly impossible in a climate of instability and political upheaval. Teetering on the brink of anarchy, Libya is unable to emerge from its predicament since the fall of the dictatorship, and Europe needs to go to great lengths in securing the cooperation of various warlords and local power brokers to stem the migration tide. What is worse, the conditions of the camps (with)holding the would-be migrants are appalling, and stories emerging about human rights abuses on the way and in the camps warrant urgent humanitarian action, if only feasible.
Caught in the migration trap, Europe has to put a brave face on its dealings with North Africa as the former rosy plans of North-South Shore cooperation fade into memory. Tense relations between the southern shoreline states would make any planning about a common future redundant for now. In the “NA” of the MENA, no two neighbors exist in harmony; only they are wise enough to refrain from violence in sorting out their differences. Watched wearily by Big Brother Egypt, super sensitive to neighborhood instabilities, they have fallen below the radar for most of the world and are far too onerous to deal with for Europe alone, now preoccupied with Ukraine and Trump tariffs. Paradoxically, migration remains the single pressure card North Africa possesses to keep Europe engaged. If anything, the silence over the latest trial in Tunis has proven how European values are dumped when naked European interests trump idealistic convictions. As Europe watches helplessly, North Africa keeps drifting in unknown directions, and the boats keep coming.
