Diplomacy will succeed if the Arab Gulf states are united in confronting common threats. However, the escalating tensions between the US and Iran might destabilize the regional balance and shift the Middle Eastern order. Under this scenario, the Gulf monarchies would be severely affected.
The situation in the region remains unstable. Underlying tensions persist and show no indication of waning. Although the turmoil in Yemen has temporarily subsided, it can flare up unpredictably; the world’s attention is now increasingly directed towards Iran and its domestic unrest, along with the probable clash with the United States. Moreover, for some time, there has been discussion regarding the relationship between the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which had previously been regarded as harmonious, with the two countries viewing one another as brotherly nations. The President of the UAE, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed al-Nahyan, had long been considered a mentor to the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammad bin Salman, who, in turn, led his country to develop along lines similar to those of the UAE.
UAE-Saudi relations have recently gained momentum due to diverging visions over Yemen and support for opposite political parties. Not only that, but also the economic competition between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi has intensified over the years. Competition itself can be healthy, provided that it does not escalate into an intense conflict that undermines the interests of other parties. This scenario is highly unlikely, yet past events show that any situation can be a catalyst for an escalation of the dispute, as was the case of the Qatari diplomatic crisis in 2017.
UAE-Saudi Arabia relations were recently discussed during the official visit to Poland of Saudi Foreign Minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud. During the meeting with his Polish counterpart, Mr. Radosław Sikorski, the Foreign Minister said that relations with Abu Dhabi are “critically important” for the regional stability and “therefore the Kingdom is always keen on having a strong, positive relationship with the UAE as an important partner within the Gulf Cooperation Council.” Prince Faisal referred to the issue of Yemen and stated that, despite their “differences of view” over the country, relations with the UAE will remain strong.
The conflict in Yemen was close to escalating, and the UAE forces’ withdrawal reduced the likelihood of separating Yemen into two states. It should be remembered that Yemen is strategically located on the Red Sea, which is the main sea trade route connecting Europe, Africa, and Asia. Moreover, the Houthis control the northern part of the country and are backed by Iran; hence, further tensions could develop into unmanageable situations, also inflicting a conflict in the south. The remark of the Saudi Foreign Minister indicates that the Gulf states acknowledge the fact that any dispute among them could undermine the region’s fragile stability. Therefore, under the current circumstances, the most optimal solution to resolve such disputes is to leverage diplomacy as a primary tool used by the Gulf states. The Saudi top diplomat has also demonstrated that both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are reliable business partners for Europe, particularly for Poland, with whom bilateral economic relations are a priority and continue to flourish. In fact, a conflict between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi could affect relations with Europe and undermine the durability of economic initiatives and agreements.
The Gulf states can align when facing common threats and challenges. What Oman, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar have done is that their respective leaders engaged in bilateral talks with the US and Iran to prevent the US from striking Tehran. It has been reported that in the event of an attack, Iran would retaliate and hit the US military bases across the Middle East, including those in Türkiye, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Although it remains to be seen whether President Donald Trump will strike Iran, the tensions do not subside, leaving the region’s security in flux. On January 26, the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier arrived in the Middle East, serving as a deterrence tool against Iran. The authorities of the Arab Gulf states realize that the American military assets that were moved to the Middle East and their possible use would cause devastating consequences for the entire region.
The neighboring Arab states are closely observing the situation. The authorities in Abu Dhabi, although they did not engage in talks between the US and Iran, “reaffirmed the United Arab Emirates’ commitment to not allowing its airspace, territory, or waters to be used in any hostile military actions against Iran.” Saudi Arabia followed suit and declined to allow anyone to use its “airspace or territory in any military actions against the Islamic Republic of Iran or any attacks by any party, regardless of their destination.” Anwar Gargash, senior diplomatic adviser to the UAE’s President, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, also referred to the Iran-US tensions during the recent Emirati-Kuwaiti Media Forum in Dubai. Gargash stated that “Gulf states pay part of the prices for these confrontations, whether it’s an impact on our reputation, stability, or on the financial side”. UAE and Saudi Arabia have maintained dialogue with Iran for years, but the potential attack could downgrade their relations and lead to the disruption of the regional balance of power. For the Gulf states, it is unacceptable to carry out an attack on their territory, as was the case with Qatar, which was struck by Iran and Israel, and became a temporary theater of conflict between the US and Iran.
It can be seen that the harbinger of tensions is also the temporary closure of airspace or suspension of flights to the Middle Eastern countries. These scenarios occurred in January, when Iran closed its airspace for five hours. This was shortly followed by the resumption of flights from France and the Netherlands to the Middle East, including Dubai, that had previously been suspended due to the ongoing “geopolitical situation” in the region. Also, Indian operator IndiGo Airlines announced on January 27 that it would “adjust flight schedule” due to “developments around Iran”. In fact, any delay or cancellation of flights might result in significant losses for airlines, and it remains uncertain how long this situation will be tolerated.
President Trump’s pressure policy might spiral out of control. According to Al Jazeera, Iran “is ready for a major response.” Also, Tehran’s proxies, such as the Houthis, pose a threat to the region’s stability. At this stage, there are merely verbal threats and have not escalated into actions yet; however, subsequent positions and actions should not be underestimated since, as the previous examples have shown, another Arab Gulf country might become a frontline state. The only actors that can prevent the conflict and keep the situation under control are, de facto, the Gulf leaders. The channels of communication with Iran remain in force; therefore, this diplomatic tool would ease tensions and engage all parties in dialogue. No Middle Eastern state is keen to enter the war, and this is the matter that appears not to worry the United States’ administration, but the Gulf states that would bear serious consequences instead.
