The U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) in January transferred 5,704 remaining ISIS detainees from the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic (SDF) detention facilities in Syria to government facilities in Iraq to prevent further ISIS escapes. The question is now what will happen to them.
In January, heavy fighting took place between the Kurdish-led SDF and the Syrian government, which eventually ended with an integration agreement on January 29. During the fighting on January 19, according to the U.S. Office of the Under Secretary of War for Policy, more than 150 ISIS detainees escaped from the Shaddadi prison, of which the majority were recaptured, while several dozen remain at large.
According to the Lead Inspector General for Operation Inherent Resolve, Quarterly Report to the United States Congress, published on May 27, U.S. Central Command (USCENTCOM) transferred 5,704 remaining ISIS detainees from detention facilities in Syria to government facilities in Iraq to prevent further ISIS escapes. This, while there were a total of 9,000 ISIS estimated prisoners in SDF hands prior to the fighting in January.
Human Rights organizations, such as Human Rights Watch, have also raised concerns over Iraq’s use of the death penalty, particularly in counterterrorism cases. “Iraqi courts give out death penalties all the time and especially in terrorism cases, so if any of these prisoners went to trial, that would likely be their sentencing,” Joel Wing, Iraq expert and author of the Musings on Iraq blog, said.
Iraqi officials have also issued contradictory statements on the investigation of the newly arrived ISIS suspects, suggesting that the suspects will be prosecuted under Iraqi law. Iraqi law allows for the prosecution of foreigners for crimes that threaten state security.
“For their part, the Iraqis have tackled this group slowly, and so far, meticulously. With so many different nationalities at play, at least 70 countries, this is both a security issue and a political issue,” Devorah Margolin, Blumenstein-Rodan Senior Fellow at The Washington Institute, said.
“The Iraqis have made it clear they plan to investigate the cases before repatriating individuals. But a lot of this process is also dependent on international actors, many of whom have long been reluctant to repatriate.”
“Iraq has been criticized in the past by human rights organizations for its quick trials, high conviction rates, and the use of the death penalty. For foreigners who are prosecuted in Iraq, they could be sentenced to death. Which we have seen before, including seven French foreign fighters sentenced to death in 2019 after being transferred to Iraq from Syria,” she also added.
In 2019, Iraq sentenced French foreign fighters to death, but so far, Iraq has not carried out this sentence.
Saeed al-Jayashi, strategic affairs advisor at Iraq’s national security advisory, told state media in February that the presence of ISIS prisoners in Iraq is not permanent, and the government is working on their return to their countries of origin.
According to Mohammed A. Salih, a Non-Resident Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute, in terms of repatriation, the fate of ISIS prisoners in Iraq remains unclear.
“Iraq wants other countries to take back their nationals, but Iraqi officials have also stated that those who committed crimes on Iraqi soil will be tried in Iraq. The bulk of foreign ISIS members in Iraq are Syrians, and their fate will most likely be settled through future discussions between Iraq and Syria,” he told Khayrion.
“Whether non-Iraqi ISIS prisoners are prosecuted, and what sentences they receive, will depend on the seriousness with which Iraqi authorities pursue these cases, as well as the nature of Iraq’s relationship with the prisoners’ countries of nationality.”
However, he added that overall, the presence of such a large number of battle-hardened and potentially even more radicalized ISIS members on Iraqi soil poses a considerable security risk, particularly given the region’s generally volatile conditions. According to the Inspector General report, recently transferred ISIS detainees demonstrated “continuing adherence to ISIS ideology but demonstrated no capacity to orchestrate escape from detention.”
The U.S.-led Coalition also provided one-time stipend payments and potentially supplies and equipment to support Iraq’s detention of transferred detainees from Syria.
“It also represents a significant logistical and financial burden, as substantial resources are required to detain and manage these individuals over the long term. This challenge is compounded by the likelihood that Iraqi authorities would be highly reluctant to release them, given their past involvement in terrorism and violence,” Salih added.
Iraqi officials have also underlined in meetings with foreign countries that Iraq needs financial aid to deal with the burden of hosting the detainees. According to some estimates, housing 7,000 ISIS detainees could cost Iraq over 250 billion dinars ($190 million) annually, with daily expenses of around 25,000 dinars ($19) per detainee.
A sign that Baghdad is slowly working on the possible return of foreign nationals is the repatriation of a minor Finnish boy and a US citizen from Iraq to Finland in April amid the conflict involving Israel, the United States, and Iran. The Finnish minor, who was taken to Syria in the mid-2010s, was later placed in al-Hol camp in 2019 and transferred with other detainees to Baghdad in February. An Iraqi court on 31 March ordered his release and transfer to the Finnish embassy in Baghdad for repatriation. Iraq’s Supreme Judicial Council in April announced that they handed over a Finnish and a US citizen to their countries after “it was proven they had no affiliation with ISIS terrorist gangs,” the council added.
Thus, while the transfer of the large number of ISIS suspects from Syria to Iraq will remain a burden to Iraq, it seems that Iraq will work slowly on repatriations and is not planning to hold such a large number of ISIS suspects indefinitely. Iraq is also unlikely to carry out the death penalty for foreign nationals and will prefer to repatriate foreign ISIS suspects.
