The Middle Eastern states, including the Gulf monarchies, are facing several challenges stemming from the ongoing war. Its consequences are also felt globally, specifically in the economic field. The future of the Gulf states’ relations with both Iran and the United States remains uncertain and likely complicated.
The war between Iran and Israel escalated on February 28, and recent actions indicate that it is not going to end anytime soon. The Arab Gulf states became the main target of Iranian retaliatory attacks, and their airspace is exposed to constant penetration of missiles and drones. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, was killed, along with the top military officials. Mojtaba Khamenei succeeded his father and became the new Supreme Leader. President Donald Trump recently highlighted that Iran would be hit “twenty times harder” if Tehran decides to block the passage of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. The American administration, however, appears to be unable to specify the main goal of its military operation besides destroying the nuclear and missile capabilities. In the American narrative, the vast majority of statements consist of threats.
Al Jazeera reports that so far, 1,255 people have been killed and thousands injured in the US-Israeli attacks in Iran, as of March 10, 2026. In Israel, 13 people lost their lives following the response from Tehran. The Iranian nuclear, military, and oil facilities have also been destroyed. Given that the war not only spans the Gulf states, the fatalities and people injured were also recorded in Lebanon and Jordan. Seven American troops were reported dead.
The current war is the result of long-term tensions between longstanding adversaries, Iran and Israel. The threat of military confrontation persisted for a long time, and the Americans had already shown signs of preparations earlier by sending a US aircraft carrier into the Gulf waters and moving their fighter jets to the region. The Geneva talks between US and Iranian diplomats, brokered by Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi, yielded questionable progress. While optimistic about the possible progress of the negotiations that were planned to be held in Vienna in the following week, the interlocutors met with divergent views on the development of the nuclear and ballistic missile programs in Iran. The last round of discussion in Geneva took place on February 26, two days before the escalation.
Israel and the United States are now shaping the new regional order, leaving the Gulf states in a vulnerable position. On February 26, Arab and Islamic countries issued a statement in which they condemned the words of Mike Huckabee, the US Ambassador to Israel, who accepts an expansion of Israel’s “control over territories belonging to Arab states, including the occupied West Bank.” Iran poses an additional challenge to the region’s security, tearing down the pillars of trust with the monarchies. It should be noted that Iran warned the US that it would retaliate if the US and Israel started a joint operation against Tehran. After having launched a series of strikes on the Gulf states, Iran’s President, Masoud Pezeshkian, issued an apology to the Arab leaders, highlighting that “from now on, they should not attack neighboring countries or fire missiles at them, unless we are attacked by those countries. I think we should solve this through diplomacy.” Despite these words, the situation has not changed significantly. Relations between the Gulf and Iran have fallen into chaos, and rebuilding them will be a challenge. Although tensions are not new, this conflict has shattered the prospect of cooperation in the long term.
The questions that emerge are how the Gulf states will embrace the ongoing war. Will they be under pressure to join the United States and Israel, choose a separate path to retaliate, or pursue diplomatic means to mitigate the conflict? Choosing the right strategy requires careful and thorough calculations, given that the Gulf has already experienced significant financial losses in tourism and aviation, not to mention the global oil market and rapid surge in prices that impact the world’s economies.
War and Its Consequences in the Gulf
Observing the war unfold was not something the Arab Gulf leaders greeted with joy. They were aware of the negative consequences that would emerge immediately. Iran has been targeting strategic facilities across the Gulf, mainly airports, refineries, oilfields, a desalination plant (in Bahrain), and civilian sites. The airspace of Qatar and the UAE was closed for over a week, and currently, the Gulf states are operating flights on a limited scope. Thousands of people were stuck in the airports, but the local authorities have taken action in order to organize repatriation flights. Even though the Gulf leaders are attempting to restore flights to full capacity, constant missile and drone incursions make it impossible to take this step. Additionally, they must consider damage to the aviation sector, specifically in the UAE and Qatar, whose airlines are recognized as some of the most prestigious and high-quality air carriers globally. Dubai International Airport (DXB) is one of the world’s leading airports in terms of passenger traffic, with over 95 million recorded last year. Together with Doha’s Hamad International Airport, they are among the key transfer hubs on both a regional and global scale.
When it comes to resources, the Strait of Hormuz is a critical choke point in the oil and gas industry. According to the International Energy Agency, over 25% of the world’s oil trade transits the strait, and 93% of liquefied natural gas originating from Qatar and the UAE passes through the strait. Asian countries, mainly Japan, South Korea, India, and China, are the main importers of hydrocarbons. Al Jazeera reports that oil prices exceeded $100 per barrel, and there is a further risk of price volatility in global markets. If the war continues, it will be necessary to develop alternative routes, which may also affect the costs of oil and gas production.
The Gulf States Approach towards the War
The Gulf leaders condemned the Iranian attacks on their territory. Most of the ballistic missiles and drones have been intercepted, but some of them still managed to enter their airspace and caused damage in the Gulf states, mainly in aviation. In this regard, Arab decision-makers are calling for a diplomatic solution and warn of severe, far-reaching consequences in the security and economic spheres, not only in the region but also globally. Qatar’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al Thani, stated in his interview for Sky News that he is open to negotiating with Iran, but also expressed that Tehran’s actions are a “big sense of betrayal”. Nevertheless, the Prime Minister seeks de-escalation and has also urged the United States to “reduce tensions” to prevent further destabilization of the region.
Diplomatic channels of communication also remain open between Saudi Arabia and Iran. According to Reuters, Saudi authorities would permit the US forces to use their bases for military operations if Iran continues to target Saudi territory or energy facilities. In a manner similar to Qatar, Saudi Arabia refers to mediation and dialogue as means to de-escalate the conflict between the US and Iran.
Al Jazeera reports that the UAE has become the most targeted country across the Gulf Cooperation Council states. Airports in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, the US military airbase, and the most popular tourist sites were hit by drones and missiles, yet no major damage has been done. The UAE withdrew its ambassador from Iran and closed its embassy in response to the “blatant Iranian missile attacks that targeted the UAE’s territory.” However, in an interview with Euronews, one of the Emirati officials said that “relations between Gulf states and Iran are not going to go back, because at the end of the day, you are neighbors.” Nevertheless, trust is the main pillar upon which relations are built, and it will take time to regain it. Anwar Gargash, senior diplomatic advisor to the UAE President, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed al Nahyan, stresses that the country’s “goal is to stop this ongoing aggression against the UAE and the Arab Gulf states, not to be dragged into escalation.”
Witnessing The Emergence of a New Regional Order – Again
This is the first grave crisis in relations between the Arab Gulf states and Iran since 2016. The ongoing strikes on their territories will affect their economies and security in a long-term perspective. Although the Gulf states officially remain under the US security umbrella, their ally did not protect them from attacks but exposed them to direct threats instead. The trust dilemma pertains not only to Iran but also to the United States and its future position in the Gulf. In May 2025, President Trump paid official visits to Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, offering lucrative contracts and cooperation in strategic areas, with the intention of positioning the Gulf as a key partner in the field of artificial intelligence. The Gulf states affected by the Iranian strikes may face difficulties attracting foreign investment due to weakened security and stability in the Middle East, which are crucial for international cooperation.
As the Arab leaders stated, they do not want to be involved in the war and opt for a diplomatic solution that would lead to an immediate ceasefire. Without a clear and unified vision for the region’s future, no effort can bring a viable and coherent solution. It should be noted that the clash of interests between the global power and regional actors does not contribute to maintaining the regional balance of power. Although assessing who is going to benefit from the war is today unfeasible, the US and Israel are shaping the regional order, with the Gulf that has become a key theatre for the conflict, and Iran, posing a challenge to the region’s stability.
